
On 22 August 2008, several seismic stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) registered a seismic event of magnitude 4 in the northeast of Arcania. Based on IMS monitoring data, an analysis by the International Data Centre (IDC) in Vienna, Austria, and observations of increased activity at Arcania’s former nuclear test site, an on-site inspection was requested by Arcania’s neighbour, Fiducia. The CTBTO Executive Council approved the on-site inspection request on 27 August 2008.
This scenario of a suspected violation of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) by a Member State has been developed, resulting in the first ever full simulation of an on-site inspection. The exercise takes place at the former Soviet Union nuclear test site of Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan, which is providing the backdrop for the hypothetical State of Arcania.
Such inspections are a key element of a global alarm system that is being built by the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBTO) to detect nuclear explosions anywhere on our planet. After many years of preparing and testing various aspects of the on-site inspection regime, the CTBTO is now applying a holistic approach during the Integrated Field Exercise 2008 or IFE08.
Realistic scenario for an on-site inspection
In order to provide a realistic setting for the simulation exercise, the State of Arcania was invented. Arcania is a landlocked country with a population of roughly 35 million, which shares its borders with three other fictional countries including Fiducia. Although Arcania possesses nuclear capabilities for the production of energy that it claims not to use for military purposes, it is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). To make the scenario as realistic as possible, Arcania has a former nuclear test site on its territory: over 20 underground nuclear explosions were conducted there until 1989 when the site was closed. Remnants of previous nuclear testing activities such as boreholes, craters and derelict buildings are still visible throughout the area.























